You remember epidemiologists, don’t you?

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, epidemiologists provided their expertise, whether it was to learn about the latest viral variant or advice on whether to go to the gym.

As we navigate a post-pandemic world, that guidance is still vital. What should the world be doing to stay prepared for the next outbreak or pandemic threat? What known viruses pose risk? What actions should be taken when a new virus is spotted? 

The Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition surveyed more than 100 of the world’s experts in virology, epidemiology and infectious diseases to bring their latest thinking forward.

Our own virus hunter, Mary Rodgers, breaks down the report and answers some of the top questions below.

Click here to read the full survey report.

So Dr. Rodgers, is the world prepared for another pandemic?

We asked this exact question – and 90% of those working in this field said we are the same or better prepared. So this is good news. There wasn’t always that big of a consensus among the survey respondents. Experts were split down the middle on whether they thought there was a bigger potential for a large-scale outbreak from a new pathogen (50%), like we saw with COVID, or changes in a known disease (50%), like H5N1, or bird flu.

What should we think about bird flu? Should we be concerned?

H5N1 is a highly pathogenic avian influenza, so it’s a virus the scientific community has been watching for decades, especially how it has been infecting animals.

In the survey, we asked the experts to think about the profile, or key characteristics, a pathogen would have to determine its potential to spark a widescale outbreak. “Highly transmissible,” “a novel virus with no countermeasures” and “silent transmission” were the top characteristics. “A known pathogen that’s now drug resistant,” “high morbidity” and “high mortality” were much lower.

We can think about this within the context of bird flu. Right now, the virus is not highly transmissible between humans, and countermeasures (tests, treatments and vaccines) do exist. So there’s consistent guidance from the public health community that the risk of transmission to humans remains low but we should be monitoring.

That’s why surveillance programs to watch for spikes or signals of outbreaks are so important.

Are testing programs like that already happening for new or existing viruses?

They are, but more are needed. Experts in the survey listed surveillance programs to identify emerging pathogens as the No. 1 gap in which we should prioritize investments to be better prepared.

There are several types of surveillance programs: there’s active surveillance, such as looking for symptomatic cases in health systems or traveler-based surveillance at airports or ports.

There are also passive surveillance programs, like wastewater surveillance, to have ongoing data of known viruses like COVID-19 or influenza. Countries can determine what surveillance programs will best support their communities in being prepared. 

We’re seeing a lot of headlines about mosquito-related diseases like West Nile virus and EEE. Are these climate-related? How should we think about the risk of these outbreaks?

The changes in climate don’t cause disease outbreaks, but they can accelerate it, like kindling for a flame. Warmer weather and extreme weather events like flooding can mean more disease-carrying animals are moving closer to where people live.

One fascinating finding from the survey was that, with the climate changing, more focus should be put on mosquito-borne diseases. Sixty-one percent of respondents listed mosquito-borne pathogens as the most likely to pose a greater threat to human health as the climate changes compared with ticks, avian or animal pathogens. And 92% said it’s important to track insect ranges due to the effect on infectious disease outbreaks.

Dengue virus, a mosquito-borne pathogen, has been in the headlines this past year in large part due to the high level of cases in Latin America and Asia, as well as advisories issued on the potential for the virus to spread to more regions like the U.S. and Europe.

Members of the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition are doing research to see how a changing climate could impact where diseases spread. Understanding where viruses are located, how they are spreading and which ones might turn into outbreaks can help countries have testing in place to prevent further spread.

What keeps you up at night when it comes to being prepared?

The public health community has a tough job – how to effectively communicate the need to be prepared for the next unknown.

In terms of worries, the top responses experts gave us were: the need for increased trust among the public, continued investment in public health testing systems and the ability to track and identify potential emerging viruses and outbreaks worldwide.

There are many organizations around the world doing this kind of testing surveillance, including the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition. We are seeing examples of countries that are continuing testing programs to help reduce the spread of infectious diseases impacting their communities – including HIV, hepatitis and those that cause acute febrile illnesses, like malaria or dengue.

These programs are addressing health challenges today while keeping these countries prepared for potential outbreaks of the future.

The good news is that this survey suggests that the biggest challenge does not lie in the need for new technologies. Instead, we can take all we’ve learned during the COVID-19 pandemic to build a robust, resilient and enduring system that’s focused on identifying and guiding the response to emerging threats around the world.